Since the initial adoption of “smart” building automation more than a decade ago, HVAC systems have become increasingly intelligent, connected, and efficient. Early advances such as variable refrigerant flow (VRF), which greatly improved HVAC efficiency, have helped organizations reduce energy use. But as energy costs continue to rise, and regulations tighten, these improvements are no longer enough. For this reason, today’s HVAC trends reflect a growing need to go beyond incremental efficiency gains. More than ever, facilities need HVAC systems that are not only more efficient, but also more resilient, adaptable, and aligned with a company’s long‑term ESG objectives.
Trend 1: Smart, AI-driven HVAC Controls
Fortunately, upgrading HVAC infrastructure doesn’t require replacing or retrofitting all the systems at once. Modern sensors and AI tools can connect to an existing building management system (BMS) to constantly measure, predict, and adjust how the building uses energy. For example, an IoT (internet of things) device can collect important information like occupancy or air quality data, and share it with AI tools that can analyze the data to detect patterns and discover areas for improvement. This information can then be shared with a facility’s BMS, enabling changes that improve both occupant comfort and energy efficiency.
Multi-site organizations are shifting from siloed, site-specific HVAC controls to centralized platforms, allowing facility managers to control dozens of sites simultaneously from a single dashboard.
Modern technology can also help with dynamic load management—shifting or trimming energy use when prices are higher or the grid is stressed. Thanks to machine learning, HVAC technology can learn over time which loads are flexible and how far they can be adjusted.
Trend 2: Electrification and Heat Pump Adoption
Until recently, facilities managers focused primarily on the efficiency of their HVAC systems. Traditionally, even smart HVAC systems often relied on fossil-fuel-driven solutions like gas heat or oil-fired boilers. Current HVAC trends, however, involve moving away from gas and toward heat pumps.
When integrated with AI and IoT-based controls, electrified heat pumps foster decarbonization and greater energy efficiency. Heat pumps can also be financially beneficial, as many government entities and utilities are offering generous tax credits, rebates, and low-interest financing on qualified units. These incentives, combined with continued technological improvements, are turning what were once prohibitively expensive technologies into a practical option for many companies.
There are two common types of heat pump systems that work particularly well in commercial buildings—water-source pumps and air-source pumps. Each type has distinct advantages and disadvantages:
- Water-source heat pumps: Ideal for large high-rises with limited roof space, water-source heat pumps exchange heat via a central water loop. They offer higher efficiency through stable water temperatures.
- Air-source heat pumps: Using a rooftop or ground-level unit, air-source heat pumps pull heat from or to outdoor air. These pumps are fairly easy to retrofit with existing systems, making them ideal for smaller commercial properties. However, they are less efficient in extreme cold.
Trend 3: Low-GWP Refrigerants and Regulatory Shifts
Many countries, including the United States, are phasing out high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants in HVAC systems, mandating stepped schedules that limit how much of these gases can be produced or used in equipment over time. For example, current regulatory HVAC rules favor lower-GWP options—such as R-32, R-454B, or natural refrigerants—over high-GWP hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) like R-410A and R-404A. The federal AIM Act seeks to phase down high-GWP refrigerants by directing the EPA to cut HFC production and consumption 85% by 2036. While new regulations do not require existing high-GWP systems to be retrofitted, over time facility owners will nevertheless have to replace or retrofit “stranded” assets when current refrigerants get prohibitively expensive or hard to source.
At the same time that regulations are tightening, consumer calls for sustainability are growing, and forward-looking businesses are heeding these calls. As many successful companies have discovered, there are practical, bottom-line benefits to having a clearly articulated ESG (environmental, social, and governance) strategy. According to a survey by PwC, consumers are willing to spend 9.7% more on sustainably produced or sourced goods—even during times of cost-of-living pressures. This reality has led companies of all sizes to follow several sustainable HVAC trends, including the use of recyclable materials, energy-efficient components, and enhanced heat recovery capabilities that minimize waste (and maximize performance).
Trend 4: Integrated IAQ and Energy Performance
One of the most important of the HVAC trends has come in the wake of the pandemic, which created a fundamental shift in how governments, businesses, medical communities, and the general public approach indoor air quality (IAQ). According to the 2025 GPS Air Indoor Air Quality Perception Report, 66% of Americans say they’re more cautious about indoor air since the pandemic. This puts pressure on facilities managers to demonstrably improve air quality. The challenge is to improve quality while meeting energy conservation and electrification targets.
One way to achieve both quality and cost goals is to adopt demand-controlled ventilation (DCV). This feature uses CO2 and occupancy sensors to monitor how much air is being used so that outside air can be increased in busy rooms and decreased in lightly occupied areas. Companies can also add in-room filtration for high-risk or high-density areas, thus removing more fine particles without dramatically increasing fan energy.
Trend 5: Portfolio-level Centralization and Remote Management
A handful of emerging HVAC trends are specific to multi-site organizations. One of these trends is the shift from siloed, site-specific HVAC controls to centralized platforms that control dozens of sites simultaneously. Using sophisticated technologies like BACnet and IoT gateways, these platforms aggregate data from multiple building systems and present them in single dashboard, enabling facilities managers to control the HVAC systems of multiple buildings from one central location.
With these systems, facilities managers can see real-time metrics (including temperature, energy use, alarms, and building occupancy) for multiple locations on a single screen. Schedules, setpoints, and modes can all be adjusted remotely, leading to more efficient real-time management. Additionally, energy savings can be achieved through AI-enabled technologies that automatically adjust for factors such as occupancy or weather. Seeing all the data in one place allows for easy benchmarking across sites, faster response to alarms, and a reduction in “truck rolls,” (because more fixes can be handled remotely, thereby reducing the need to dispatch a technician).
It’s worth noting, however, that centralization does not come without risk. Compared to site-specific systems, centralized multisite platforms are more vulnerable to cloud outages and cyberattacks. And when a platform goes down, the impact can be felt across multiple sites. Fortunately, there are ways to mitigate these risks. Using redundant platforms (primary plus backup), for example, allows managers to override the centralized system and segment the network if needed.
Trend 6: Data-driven Maintenance and Workforce Gaps
As with other skilled trades, HVAC technicians are not as plentiful as facilities managers would like. Workyard, a field service management software company, reports that the industry is currently short 110,000 technicians; and 25,000 HVAC technicians leave the field every year. At the same time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts 8% growth in the demand for HVAC workers between 2024 and 2034. These two opposing HVAC trends combine to create a difficult labor situation.
This is a serious issue for facilities managers. Fortunately, it’s not an insurmountable one.
Overcoming the skilled trades labor shortage requires a multi-pronged approach. One solution relies on a greater use of technology. IoT sensors and AI data analysis, for example, enable facility managers to adopt a predictive approach to maintenance, going beyond traditional preventive maintenance.
Rather than servicing equipment on a pre-determined schedule, predictive maintenance calls for determining service needs based on actual conditions. Because of this, organizations that adopt a predictive maintenance model can realize significant savings. For example, when St. Mary’s Regional Medical Center in Arizona transitioned to IoT-driven predictive maintenance for their critical systems, they achieved a 35% reduction in overall maintenance costs (saving over $2 million annually), a 47% decrease in emergency repair calls, and a 62% increase in equipment uptime.
But while technology can help offset the labor shortage, it is not yet a cure-all. This is why savvy companies are tackling the labor issue head on. They’re creating talent pipelines by building relationships with trade schools and junior colleges; they’re opening their own upskilling programs in house; and they’re looking beyond traditional labor pools.
Trend 7: Flexible Systems for Evolving Space Use
The relatively rapid shift in building use over the past few years may be the most impactful of all the HVAC trends on our list. As office, retail, and mixed‑use properties are reconfigured into coworking, medical, lab, residential, and “flex” spaces, HVAC is under pressure to serve more diverse loads within the same shell.
In this environment, the most effective HVAC systems are those that can adapt to different occupancies and tenant types. Heat recovery and hybrid VRF systems meet this demand for flexibility. Both types of system provide independent control of multiple zones and can deliver simultaneous heating and cooling, which is valuable when one tenant needs cooling while another in the same building needs heat instead. Hybrid VRF has the added advantage of limiting refrigerant in occupied spaces by using water on the distribution side.
Another technological breakthrough that increases flexibility is the modular HVAC system. Modular HVAC architecture allows owners to add, remove, or right‑size individual modules. This enables facility managers to respond quickly as tenants change and spaces are converted from low‑load uses (like storage) to high‑load uses (like kitchens, labs, or offices).
Taken together, these HVAC strategies and technologies give facilities teams the ability to respond to changing tenant loads, variable occupancy patterns, and new use types with targeted modifications instead of major central plant overhauls. But these gains don’t happen automatically, they must be planned for.
A good time to implement change is during tenant improvements or capital planning. These disruptions represent opportunities and are an ideal time to prioritize layouts that support clear, isolatable zones, with dedicated branch piping or duct risers, scalable modular capacity, and controls that can be easily reprogrammed as suites are combined or subdivided.
Turning HVAC Trends into Actionable Plans
Adopting the HVAC trends highlighted here does not require overhauling your entire facility overnight. Here are some practical steps you can take to future-proof your buildings:
Identify Fuels and Refrigerants
Before taking any action, be sure to conduct a careful inventory. Check your building’s records or equipment nameplates to identify whether you are currently heating with gas, oil, diesel, or electricity. On the cooling side, map your refrigerant inventory through the data plate or service stickers on chillers, VRF systems, and rooftop units (RTUs). After you have identified the refrigerants that you’re using, you can measure their GWP and rank systems from highest to lowest impact.
Make a Plan and Set Goals for the Future
Align your capital plans with upcoming refrigerant milestones or requirements. For example, if new legislation is making your current systems obsolete or noncompliant, your priority is clear. If your systems are in compliance, the next priority is to establish clear, measurable goals, such as fewer comfort complaints and service calls, and lower energy use. And be sure to tie plans for any future projects to clear goals as well, such as reduced emissions, lower risk from future regulation, and better operating costs over time.
Improve Operations Today
While it’s often not practical to upgrade everything at once, there are ways to improve HVAC performance without a major upgrade. For example:
- Fix known refrigerant leaks quickly.
- Keep accurate leak logs.
- Ensure any current sensors, filters, or controls are calibrated and maintained as a system, not in isolation.
- Update your sequences of operations—the written and programmed files that tell an HVAC or building system exactly how to behave under different conditions—as needed. Updates are especially important when new regulations are issued. For example, new IAQ rules might require a change in the sequence of operations to ensure the system meets higher ventilation, filtration, or monitoring requirements.
Maximize Opportunity During Equipment Change-Outs
When a boiler or furnace reaches the end of its life, that’s the perfect time to evaluate other types of systems, like heat pumps. When replacing AC equipment, consider models that use low-GWP refrigerants and are capable of advanced leak detection.
It’s also important to make upgrades and other improvements holistically. The U.S. Department of Energy states that building envelope technologies account for as much as 30 percent of the energy consumed in both residential and commercial buildings. Therefore, when upgrading HVAC systems, consider making other, complementary upgrades to insulation, weatherstripping, or windows.
Bundling envelope improvements will allow you to install smaller, more efficient HVAC equipment—saving energy and money in the long run. Smart windows, for example, darken or lighten based on temperature and light fluctuations, and can greatly increase energy efficiency.
Adopting HVAC Trends to Future-Proof Your Building
The definition of “smart” buildings is constantly evolving. Taking practical steps today, facility managers can go beyond short-term efficiency gains or basic compliance with current regulations; they can future-proof their buildings for the years ahead. This year and beyond, success will come from being willing to pivot and adopt new technology. In other words, facilities managers need to be as flexible as today’s leading-edge HVAC systems.